New Poll Shows Saxton With Slight Lead Over Kulongoski

The poll also found that voters will likely vote against Ballot Measure 48 (Caps State Spending), and vote for Ballot Measure 43 (Parental Notification Before Abortion) and Ballot Measure 40 (Elects Judges by District).

Could Saxton be Oregon's next governor? Photo by: Tim King

(PORTLAND) - Riley Research Associates recently conducted an omnibus survey among likely Oregon voters regarding their opinions on a variety of current issues. The scientific telephone survey was conducted among 471 randomly selected registered voters throughout the state. A sample of 471 provides results accurate to within +/-4.38% at a 95% level of confidence. Fielding took place between September 20th and 29th, 2006. The cross tabs that follow this summary display the actual wording used in the questionnaire. This poll defined “likely voters” as those whose record indicated that they had voted in any two of the three following elections: 2002 General, 2004 General, or the 2006 Primary. This selection represents roughly 55% of all registered voters. In addition, when asked, 83 percent of them indicated that they were “certain” to vote in November, while 17 percent said they were “very likely” or “somewhat likely” to vote. Anyone unlikely to vote was dismissed. Riley Research chose to hear from this audience due to their expected participation in the 2006 General election in November. Likely voters tend to be older than the general population and older than the average registered voter. The age break down is as follows: 3 percent - age 18-34, 33 percent - age 35-54, 46 percent - 55-74, and 17 percent – 75 or older. The party affiliations of likely voters include: 43 percent Democrats, 40 percent Republicans, 1 percent minor parties, and 15 percent non-partisan. To provide additional perspective, we asked likely voters how often they attended church. We found that 41 percent attend at least twice a month, 27 percent attend - but less often, 26 percent never attend and 6 percent refused to say. RESULTS The Most Likely of the Likely Voters Asking respondents whether they plan to vote in November was instructive. While 83 percent said they were certain to vote, 17 percent were not quite as confident. Those who said they were “certain” to vote were more likely to be Republicans (88 percent), than Democrats (80 percent) or others (75 percent). Motivation for Voting When we asked likely voters to name one issue that would motivate them to vote, the largest percentage (41 percent) indicated that they “always vote” or that “no specific issue” was a factor, but nearly as many (38 percent) said that the governor’s race was a motivating factor. In addition, about one in ten (9 percent) cited a ballot measure, while 7 percent mentioned a tax measure (most often school funding). Gubernatorial Race A Dead Heat Ron Saxton and Ted Kulongoski appear to be statistically even at 39 to 37 percent (respectively), with 20 percent undecided. This includes those for the candidate as well as those leaning toward the candidate. Down-ticket candidates are claiming only about 4 percent of the vote, with Mary Starrett at 2 percent, while Richard Morley and Joe Keating are drawing 1 percent each. At this time, partisan loyalty appears to be a greater challenge for Kulongoski than for Saxton, as Saxton gets support from 72 percent of Republicans, while Kulongoski has the support of just 67 percent of Democrats. Other (unaffiliated and minor party) voters appear to favor Kulongoski by a 32 to 28 percent margin, with nearly one-third (31 percent) undecided. Those who attend church on a frequent basis (twice a month or more) support Saxton over Kulongoski by a two to one margin (53 to 27 percent). Saxton appears to have a slight edge among those who attend church less often, but among those who say they never attend, Kulongoski has more than a three to two margin (52 to 20 percent). Those who say they are “certain” to vote favor Saxton by a 41 to 36 percent margin, while those who say they are only “likely” to vote favor Kulongoski (39 to 29 percent). Ballot Measure 48 (Caps State Spending) Nearly half of those polled are currently undecided on this issue (47 percent). One-third of voters expect to vote no (33 percent) while one-fifth expect to support the measure (20 percent). Ballot Measure 43 (Parental Notification Before Abortion) By a 51 to 31 percent margin, likely voters say they will support this measure, although 18 percent remain undecided. Support is highest among Republicans and frequent church attendees (70 and 68 percent, respectively), and lowest among Democrats and non-church attendees (37 and 29 percent, respectively). Somewhat surprisingly, gender does not appear to be a factor, as the measure is supported equally by women and men. Ballot Measure 40 (Elects Judges by District) While over four of ten voters are currently undecided, twice as many favor - as oppose - the idea of electing judges by region rather than statewide (39 versus 19 percent). Republicans and independent voters tend to favor it in the highest numbers (46 and 42 percent, respectively), but more Democrats favor than oppose the measure as well (by 31 to 25 percent). The geographic location of the voter does not appear to be a significant factor.