Op Ed: Kicker Falsifies Economic Realities, Distorts Economy

(BEND, Ore.) - “Magical tricks” amuse and please everyone - especially when they end with rapid access to a check representing “surprise money.”

Oregon suffers from the ONLY “sometimes you win while losing” fiscal-policy numbers-game, euphemistically named “the kicker” --with most-affected members of our Oregon family never realizing the true irony of that trusty-name.

It’s the participants that truly get “kicked” no matter how-or-when that “pleasing small-pile of self-pelf” is satisfyingly spent!

Based on near-impossible economic-forecast, perpetrated on political command by sometimes-astute professionals, the Oregon “kicker” estimates depend on superhuman skills to “see into the future” - and then say, “in economic terms, very precisely, what it may mean.”

ANY economic estimate. forced by law to be within TWO PERCENT, has got to be considered very possibly unreliable and open to question, in these days of sudden, drastic, unforeseeable economic, social and cultural events and desperate-making “happenings”.

Our citizens found that out in 2001, with near-Depression driving desperate State-program slashes still not fully-remediated AND ending any further “kicker”-payback until now.

Its political allure is allowed, in Oregon, to overwhelm its record of verifiable-by-event economic influence --and thus still operate to offer further misplaced - and now extremely dangerous - distortion of both economic and political realities.

Often even the most astute of participants gets taken in by that overwhelming warm-glow generated when SOMEbody, for SOME reason, happens to hand you UN-earned “sudden surprising incoming cash”.

That very-human rapid response is radically realized --even if UN-reasonably-so - when our economy is one-step/short of recession and signs of devastating dollar-dilemmas at every level of governance now abound, with actual abatement far-off over the horizon, dominated by looming large healthcare cost-growth. Add catastrophically-multiplying dollar-drains destined for defying public opinion to prolong “The Lying War”, and resoundingly-warning signs of sudden further-collapse.

In housing, hedge funds, manufacturing outputs, wholesale and retail trade, truck, automobile and transit sales-traffic and a host of other always-reliable “indicators for disaster-due and over-due.”

In reality-terms, the two economic eras involved in THIS ONE and the LAST ONE are far too closely parallel to provide anything but the sure signs of very/nervous-driven economic understandings by those who really do know.

“NOW I can spend this one!” is the universal response to receipt of the costly-provided payout-checks, leading even those same-astute citizens know full well - from long participation forced by that status as citizens - it is, if not truly “magic”, surely simply a political trick that is played by peculiarly-placed perpetrators to provide precisely that pleasing response. It is particularly well-timed for this gift-giving season already plagued by pronounced, prolonged lassitude in lessened purchase-power by insidious inflation, prolonged over many years.

Widespread merchant-and-business attitudes are strongly demonstrated by distinctly-defined and highly persuasive “reminders” in every print-side and broadcast-advertising channel, of relentless pressures to spend-rapidly what Providence, via “kicker”-intervention, has provided us, precisely in time for the Christmas-spending part of the calendar.

The “kicker” is one more purposively-planned step to submerge and subvert and sabotage citizen understandings and rational sensitivities to realistic State taxation and operating-income realities.

The political-force/field in which it was generated --which still operates relentlessly, in Oregon and nationally - is devotedly determined to defy, deny, and defeat any widespread real-view “with your own eyes” of what our economy demands, requires, and must-have for any long-term remediation of trends destroying our middle class, creating huge further differences and deepening inequalities in our economic rewards for all workers, and putting our monies at work in many ways and many places deliberately and deceivingly chosen precisely to bring about those very specific results.

That’s the further furious-attack on our democracy, undertaken and carried out all-too-effectively in the past thirty years by those who seceded from both our basically-democratic parties “to provide the warriors and the work-demanded” for those long-range, most-damaging results.

Collectively, they are now known all-too-well as “neo-CONS” or “neo-LIBS”, depending on which political side-of-the aisle hey deserted to become part of that overwhelming force only now being denied any further opportunity to sabotage our democracy, allowed to them in the past several decades.

Any review of whence-came “the kicker” must take into account the historic political climate-prevailing in Oregon and nationally when this ironic and irrational --and irresponsible - “legislative anomaly” was allowed to happen here.

All of those “profiting” from this distortion of reasonable tax-collection and rational usage of taxes-so/collected should place those monies in a special savings-fund --ready for what’s sure to come sooner than later and at hand when-needed to replace the repetitive, unavoidable lacks-and-losses sure to be experienced in State programs and services when realities strike home, relentlessly - and perhaps all too soon, too.

While relishing the results, however, take time to check “with your own eyes”, in our print-side press, the extremely revealing differential between what larger-scale tax-payers were “refunded” as compared to the average check recipient - and YOURS!

Something is very radically wrong when such amazingly-deplorable differentials are allowed to exist, indeed, to be generated in the first instance.

When will we demand from “our elected representatives”, charged with first-and-only direct-allegiance to “the wit, wisdom and will of the people”, again begin to do our will on such fundamental issues as an equitable tax-system?

Why is there no discernible further-forward progress on remediating the “$10 minimum corporate tax”, allowed in Oregon for SEVENTY YEARS ALREADY?

When will we demand from our corporate colleagues that - for any incorporated institution showing a profit on their enterprise based in Oregon - a wisely-commensurate tax-collection be achieved?

What a kick that will be, when it begins to happen, soon, perhaps replacing the inevitable “revolution” already well-on-its-way!

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Reader’s Note:
Documentation for each fact-cited is available in too many sources to be cited in our space-available here. “Quotes” are combined, summarized, re-stated from, again, too many sources for citation here. Originals are available verbatim.

As in all our Op Eds, documentation is always available in PDF-format for anyone requesting it and providing full-ID to the Editor.

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Jefferson November 20, 2007 2:29 pm (Pacific time)

Henry: Your reference to what Sen. Moynihan wrote decades ago seemed rather confusing to me, but since you brought up this topic, may I suggest you review the below links that are from our U.S. Justice Department (F.B.I./BJS). The data, "the primary source" does not care about your agenda, race, favorite color, flower, etc. , it is what it is. In addition please note that it is in so-called "blue" controlled urban area's that have the highest concentrations of what would easily be considered pockets of "moral depravity". Possibly Ted Kennedy and Barney Frank would agree? http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/homicide/race.htm TABLE INCLUDE "HISPANICS" who come under the "white" classification, WHO ARE NOW 14% OF AMERICA'S POPULATION!

Much complaining has been centered around the so-called "driving while black", but as per the U.S. Justice Department [http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/05cius/data/table_49.html scroll down to under 18 to see what's coming down the pike! See murder rate percentages, even stolen vehicle percentages, etc. . Please also keep in mind the group percentages of our national population for a ratio perspective.

Henry Ruark November 20, 2007 11:16 am (Pacific time)

To all: Does anyone else miss Jeff's sourcing for some of his most critical points ? Surely he does not expect us to accept such fantasies on his word alone... ??!! For honest, open dialog, one should share source information or at least ID self to prove up pertinent right to speak on any particular issue...to do otherwise is simply to set forth feelings, fine for "belly-buttoning" but perverse for anyone claiming solid and testable right-to-points set out rationally and reasonably.

Jefferson November 20, 2007 9:23 am (Pacific time)

Neal thank you for your response. It appears that you are assigning some opinions to me that I simply do not have. First I am not a republican, and frankly I am looking forward to the day that Bush leaves office. He has failed to protect our country, as did Clinton and the other Bush. Certainly we need taxes, and my main priority for those taxes are for primarily the national defense, then our infrastructure. No doubt people like to see taxes allocated as per their self-interest (aka "PORK"), it's how that self-interest is eventually put into action that concerns me. Suffice, the political dance continues on how are tax funds are used, but when those forces that did not help to create the wealth get into power and begin spending like a drunk sailor is when we get into trouble. Considering that we were attacked on 9/11 coupled with a plethora of other economic problems it's amazing how well our economy is doing. The excess revenue Oregon has that promulgated the "kicker law" is because of the high revenue the Bush tax cuts created. Unfortunately the pubs started spending like the demo's and hopefully excess spending will be reined in. Unfortunately for those on the far far left, you will not like the 2008 election results for America will demand a conservative type of government and not anywhere near like that false conservative Bush as provided as per now. I would remind you that the radical Islamists and people like Castro and Chavez(and China!) would love to see the "move-on org" people in power. It will not happen and be glad of it Neal.

Henry Ruark November 20, 2007 7:41 am (Pacific time)

To all: Jeff's reference to "Chomsky chaos" apparently is to his world-renowned work in cognitive science study of the human brain and how emotions affect its operations. Among others, that work points to some psychological differences in those who claim "conservative" beliefs, leading to point that their so-called principles are carefully manipulated to build rational acceptance for what is basically a self-protective mental device. This theory is still under close examination by continued working science, and may help explain such anomalies as we sometimes read here.

Henry Ruark November 20, 2007 7:08 am (Pacific time)

Jeff et al:
This one adds more essential information for more ongoing application, not only here:

The GOP Has Become the Party of Moral Depravity By Digby , TomPaine.com http://www.alternet.org/story/68378/

Democratic Senator Daniel Patrick Moynihan wrote a groundbreaking paper back in the 1960s about the alleged weaknesses of often female-headed African-American families. He described a culture of loose morals and indulgent self-destructive behavior which the right successfully demagogued into a decades long, thinly veiled racist attack on government welfare programs. The common wisdom was that welfare institutionalized and rewarded failure leading to an immoral social order. Throughout the period there were sustained conservative attacks on those who defended such programs and participated in the vast cultural transformation of the era, characterizing these behaviors as "moral depravity."
====================

That was seized-upon by the neocon noise machine, used all across nation in many ways and variations, accounts in large part for inbuilt avoidances today by "conservatives" who overlook both facts and this history.

Henry Ruark November 20, 2007 6:34 am (Pacific time)

Friend Jeff et al: Right on cue as responsible coverage in S-N cometh story above detailed damage to our middle class by irresponsible, ill-timed, greed-drive special tax treatment for wealthy and corporate cronies by Bush and previous. Please note full-detail is provided by our own Oregon OCPP, gaining world-system fame every day in many ways, for telling it true and tough. Points-made here are right on the public record and are irrevocable no matter what neocon noise machine may make them out to be. But dialog via ID-to-editor still open to any-and-all, as it always is in my Op Eds.

Henry Ruark November 20, 2007 6:08 am (Pacific time)

Friend Jeff: Call me Hank: "Mr. Ruark" makes me look over my shoulder for Dad, long-departed, always an activist but open-minded from beginnings as wellknown investigative journalist on Mencken's daily in Baltimore. Re "abyss", would avoid that word if "conservative" after two-Bush/Reagan record, where allathis demonstrated-crap re "supply side" began; now outmoded in all major economic circles, returning to proven principles after disastrous record of supply-side for past thirty years. Laffer never answered my direct question in D.C. re napkin-drawn curve: "Could you have had napkin upside-down ?" Re rest of open political palaver, out of place here, which is why I offered you access to some 100 PDFs built over past ten years, since yr inbuilt life experience leaves you impotent for change, as demonstrated here. Will also ask what you've read latel, by whom, with what notes, from what authoritative sources. "Opinion" better than belly-button only when built on facts. Chomsky world rep. denies descent into chaos, to confirm world-events with true impact on meaningful action. Note yr first-response re "carburetor" on kicker check says it best and clearest. In all friendly dialog, ID self to editor and let's get it on privately, in depth and detail, with decent, detailed documentation from both of us. I learn more that way in one day than in most weeks of other approaches, and perhaps you can teach me, too...

Neal Feldman November 19, 2007 10:32 pm (Pacific time)

Jefferson - Your sophistry makes no sense. And if republicans were the cause of the surpluses in the Clinton era please explain then how with all three branches of govt solidly republican from 2000-2006 we went from record surpluses to record deficits and the debt ceiling has had to be raised to neartly ten TRILLION dollars to preventthe Us govt from defaulting on its obligations. If lowering taxes increased revenues then zero taxes would mean infinite revenue. interesting how that clearly would not be the case. You boy Shrub can do all the giveaways to the wealthy and wage his expensive personal wars while refusing to pay for it all somhow expecting the infratructure to just go on without maintenance... and then you just blame 'entitlements;... when ;entitlement' is merely a term used to refer to someone else's sacred cow. You see, some like you consider, I wager, mass transit to be an entitlement... where I, on the other hand, consider the highway and road system to be a massive entitlement. Those who drive cars are FAR more subsidized than those of us who ride the bus... this is just one example. So you go on bleating the neo-con noise machine talking points like a good little Sheeple and thpse of us who have the capacity for actual reasoned thought will see it for what it is and continue to point it out. You do not like this truth? Ah well...

Jefferson November 19, 2007 6:12 pm (Pacific time)

Yes Mr. Ruark I'm sure of what your response(s) will be...and facts will be my reponse...It's my hope that you will be civil as you spiral into the Chomsky abyss.

Henry Ruark November 19, 2007 5:34 pm (Pacific time)

Friend Jeff:
Yrs brought on such a burst of merriment cannot answer till I regain control...esp. that line re conservatives, and the one re govt does nothing but spend...
FannieMae ain't gonna love you much !.
moresoon, seriously, welcome yr input but time here closing in on me for other outputs.

Jefferson November 19, 2007 12:46 pm (Pacific time)

More on the Death Tax: "Joe Robbie owned and built the Miami Dolphins into an NFL power house. His kids came into the business and helped him run it.When Joe died, Uncle Sam came to collect the 50% Death Tax and his kids were forced to sell the Dolphins for the taxes; then they lost their jobs....And the American Left was very happy! "Karl Marx loved Fred's money also! People who keep more of the wealth they "create" the more jobs they also create. The government, on it's own does not create wealth people, they only spend it!

Jefferson November 19, 2007 12:26 pm (Pacific time)

Mr. Ruark I donate because I can. Many people out there cannot because they are so overtaxed that any type of tax relief is a blessing. The kicker is simply a symptom of being over-taxed. There will always be a divide between those who want less taxes (they are called common-sensors aka conservatives) and those who feel they can spend other people's money better than those who earned it and/or those who actually create wealth (they are called a number of things). Neal there certainly were surpluses during the Clinton Administration. Can you name some legislation that he originated that led to these surpluses? From what I remember it was a Republican congress that actually created those surpluses. It was Clinton's 1993 tax increases, which he said he would not do when he ran in 1992, that allowed the pubs to take over in 1994 (and they will again next year). Nevertheless Neal, we need better money management, we are all in this together. When Oregon innitially built the infrastructre we still use today to some extent, what was the source of revenue? Our entitlement programs and our public educational system have become a black hole, getting bigger all the time. Compare other states like New Jersey and see how higher taxes simply do not improve things. NOTE: The engine of our economy is the small businesses out there, the so-called "Death tax" will seriously harm that engine. Less taxes and/or lower taxes have proven time after time to enhance and grow the economy. For some reason, so many just can't seem to understand that historically documented fact.

Henry Ruark November 19, 2007 8:00 am (Pacific time)

Here's how proportional return applies directly to this Oregon issue, with data from the OCPP Op Ed in OREGONIAN: "This year's kicker will send a check for $297 to the typical Oregon household, whose income has stagnated throughout this decade. That single check may ease a month's mortgage payment or pay for a family's Christmas presents, but it won't provide economic security or opportunity. By contrast, well-off Oregonians -- who captured 97 percent of all income gains generated during the first three years of Oregon's recent economic recovery -- will receive hefty sums. Those Oregonians making $360,000 or more a year will reap kicker checks averaging $13,548. That's more than the average household in the lowest 20 percent income group makes in a year. That group will see kicker checks averaging a whopping $28. In other words, the kicker lavishes a windfall on those who don't need it. It is akin to providing lifeboats to those safely aboard a cruise ship and precious little to those struggling to stay afloat in the water." Dunno about you, but family here struggling to keep all afloat, with many Oregon issue problems "pending" due to long continued Legislative neglect of real solutions, while subbstituting such as this distorted/perverted "kicker". Now you know who is really getting kicked...

Henry Ruark November 19, 2007 7:50 am (Pacific time)

Proportional-return is key element in "kicker" - so let's look at that issue. Here's one of world's richest testifying to Congress: Warren Buffett to Congress: Keep Taxing the Mega-Rich http://www.alternet.org/story/68145/ "Billionaire Warren Buffett testified before the Senate Finance Committee on Wednesday in defense of the federal estate tax, the nation's only tax on inherited wealth. "Buffett invoked the historical roots of the estate tax, established in 1916 during the Gilded Age to put a brake on anti-democratic concentrations of wealth and power. "Dynastic wealth, the enemy of meritocracy, is on the rise," Buffett told the panel. "Equality of opportunity has been on the decline. A progressive and meaningful estate tax is needed to curb the movement of a democracy toward plutocracy."

Henry Ruark November 19, 2007 7:33 am (Pacific time)

To all: Despite possible appearance, I have never met Neal nor do we collaborate in any way on what we share here. BUT his conclusions, from very different experience and background than mine, should surely surround this situation with reasons to cogitate-again right here in Oregon, on this touchy issue and its carefully contrived consequences.

Henry Ruark November 19, 2007 6:03 am (Pacific time)

To all: Intent here should be on kicker-deficiencies and remediation. SO will PDF-points re any one of issues above, to any, all ID'ing self to Editor, with request. Let's stick to Oregon issue this time, avoid neocon tactic of changing subjects rapidly, seeking useless past history, avoiding real issue at hand. Kicker obfuscates essential Oregon needs, providing easy out for absolute unavoidable tax reform demanded rapidly, and performs mightily as part of neocon "noise machine" well known as planned events-sought for past thirty years.

Henry Ruark November 19, 2007 5:41 am (Pacific time)

Neal et al: Nothing verbose re your detailed analysis, and right on the money (no pun !) for every point. Will add, for Oregon, must also count our surely missing blessings withheld via various voluminous methods by Oregon corporate participants and others would should have been paying their requisite shares for years --and you arrive at laugable "rainy day fund" seen as many billions short of what it should be, by now, to prepare for already-looming recession sure to arrive sooner rather than later this time. But hope springs eternal, with next-due solid review in coming Feb. "experimental yearly" Leg. session. Let's make very-warm welcome for "them" when they arrive in February, traditionally a cold month...we can make it very much otherwise, if we will.

Neal Feldman November 18, 2007 8:47 pm (Pacific time)

Entitlements have not whittled away at anything. The largest chunk of the state budget since Measure 5 has been public education. From a state level standpoint another big bite is from unfunded mandates from the federal level but mostly (and this has been mainly since Reagan through the conservative administrations (Clinton had surpluses)) it has been through the tactic of borrow and spend as well as Reagan's little trick of putting all the trust funds (transportation, social security etc) into the general fund to fraudulently make the deficits look smaller. Add to the fact that after Reagan and Bush I were done these trust funds were nothing but IOU containers and the trend of passing expense increases while refusing to acrtually increase the revenues (raise taxes) to pay for them and you get to where we are now. Blaming entitlement programs is misdirected and dishonest (or simply ignorant). Infrastructure got neglected because it could be neglected. When you have trouble putting food on the table the roof, pipes and car maintenance get neglected and ignored until through neglect there is a catastrophic failure which moves the issue to the forefront. And in a household that has no savings this can be truly devastating. And the kicker does not even allow funding in all areas decimated by cuts during lean year to be reconstituted (such as funding for senior and disabled which are at about 20% what they should be) much less build up savings or take care of all the neglected infrastructure that now needs repairs/replacement instead of less costly maintenance. It is a function of shortsighted lack of intelligent planning... having a veneer of affluence when it is all just a house of cards that falls apart into bankruptcy the first time an ill fiscal wind blows. Ah well...

Henry Ruark November 18, 2007 3:16 pm (Pacific time)

R.C.: Verbosity is villainous, esp. from the rapidly aging...your kind suggestion taken to heart, and possibly to head, too...

Respectful Citizen November 17, 2007 6:18 pm (Pacific time)

Dear Henry, You often have good points and you are a good writer. However, you tend to pontificate and are often verbose. Writers, and especially reporters, should follow simple rules to be more effective. Please work on conveying your points with fewer words and shorter sentences!

Henry Ruark November 18, 2007 2:18 pm (Pacific time)

Jefferson: Your response reflects both conscience and cogitation,sir, but why donate check IF you feel it should rightfully be returned ? Regulation and even law cannot alter the inescapable irresponsibilities of forcing a 2%-measured "estimate" within such inestimably-dangerous economic circumstance. That is simply still further proof of profoundly potent ill-or-non/logic in this deeply flawed "kicker"-thing.

Henry Ruark November 18, 2007 2:01 pm (Pacific time)

Reader et al: As in query to Jefferson ? Re "pontificating", your usage implies mine somewhat like Pope's, Appreciate that, but believe mine closer to professional approach: opinion-after-study; while his depends heavily simply on faith. Some issues alow simplified statement, others defy it. This one reflects greed from now-outmoded political faith failing all tests of reality in the modern world.

Reader November 18, 2007 9:50 am (Pacific time)

Mr. Ruark, With all due respect, you need to write in shorter sentences and stop pontificating.

Sue November 18, 2007 9:26 am (Pacific time)

We can live without the refund, but the state cannot live with it. The kicker is insane! The corporate kicker is even worse. Yeah, I like to get a little extra spending money, but I can do without it. This is sooo crazy.

Jefferson November 18, 2007 9:10 am (Pacific time)

The funding for our infrastructure has been whittled away via entitlement programs. Just like how our social security funds are directed for other uses. What is the biggest drain on our state tax system? Have these funds shown positive results, or a steady decline? Note: I will take my kicker check and donate it to charity. Also be aware that there are accounting priciples/administrative rules/regulations and laws that our budget analysts must operate by. I think a flat tax may offer some relief, along with reducing dependent deductions after two children and ... and...

Henry Ruark November 18, 2007 7:02 am (Pacific time)

Jefferson et al: HOW BIG was YOUR check ?

Neal Feldman November 18, 2007 12:26 am (Pacific time)

The kicker law is idiotic public policy. In lean times does the state get to increase taxes to get revenues up to within 2% of estimates? Of course not. So why should it have to return excesses? Personally if I were the forecasters I would forcast very high numbers so even though results would nearly never equal the forecasted results we would never need to refund anything and I would work in the budget a large item to cover shortfalls. This law is feel good nonsense that is the root cause of our infrastructure falling apart through neglect due to lack of funds. so all you gleeful nitwits chuckling to yourself as you drive to the mall to spend your precious kicker checks don't cry to me if the bridge you are driving over to get there collapses under you or the tunnel you are driving through caves in, etc. In your selfish shortsighted glee you clearly myopically cannot see the cause/effect of these occurances. I, however, can see them clearly. There is a reason no other state has emulated the kicker scheme. Because it is moronic public policy of the first water. One of these days Oregonians will figure this out or the forecasters will start doing as I suggested, or the legislature will get a spine and undo this ridiculously shortsighted and self-destructive bit of feel good stupidity. Ah well...

Jefferson November 17, 2007 10:09 pm (Pacific time)

Possibly a flat tax would allow for a better budget forcast, but in the meantime, the taxpayer should have "their" money returned post haste. The entitlement mentality just doesn't get it, that is, the taxpayer trumps their socialistic wants...P.S. I will enjoy my kicker check, I'll use it to put a bigger carb on mu really really big SUV, thank you very much.

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Economic Realities, Distorts Economy

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