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Jun-29-2012 18:38

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Obama Woos Latino Voters

Ralph E. Stone Salem-News.com

Two recent events may increase Obama's chances of gathering a large percentage of the Hispanic vote.

U.S. President Barack Obama

(SAN FRANCISCO) - In winning the presidency in 2008, Barack Obama won about 67 percent of the Hispanic vote. He probably will need to win at least that percentage to win reelection. There are about 21.5 million Hispanic voters -- 4.4 million potential voters in California -- now eligible to vote in the November 2012 presidential election, with about 60 percent registered to vote. If registration drives are successful between now and the election, the number of eligible Hispanic voters will increase.

Hispanic voters have a chance to influence the outcome for president in at least 24 states. The top ten states with high concentrations of potential Hispanic voters are California, Texas, New York, Florida, Arizona, Colorado, Georgia, New Mexico, Virginia, and Nevada. In 2008, Democrats won California, New York, Florida, Colorado, New Mexico, and Virginia. (www.americanprogress.org/issues/2012/06/electoral_power.html)

Two recent events may increase Obama's chances of gathering a large percentage of the Hispanic vote.

The first was the presidential announcement that “prosecutorial discretion” would be exercised to halt deportation proceedings against young undocumented persons with spotless police records and honorably discharged veterans. However, it was not an executive order that federal agencies are bound by law to carry out. Rather, it was a presidential announcement accompanied by a low-level memo. Will the memo be followed by U.S. Immigration Customs Enforcement, which has a history of deporting everyone it could lay hands on? Regardless, the announcement appears to be a hit among Hispanics. In a poll conducted by Quinnipiac University (www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/presidential-swing-states-%28fl-oh-and-pa%29/release-detail?ReleaseID=1767) conducted between June 19-25, Obama's shift on immigration policy has boosted his support in the key battleground states of Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida. In Florida, which has a larger Latino population than the other two states, the effect of Obama’s immigration stance is key. Hispanic voters in Florida currently back the president over Romney 56 percent to 32 percent, a five-point jump from before the announcement. And the immigration policy itself has wide support, favored 58 percent to 33 percent by Floridians.

Obama holds his widest lead in Ohio, where he’s ahead of Romney by nine points, 47 percent to 38 percent. Similar to Florida, the president’s immigration policy is popular (52% for with 38 percent against) and his widest demographic leads are with women and minority voters.

Likewise Obama's immigration policy is favored by Pennsylvania voters 51 percent to 41 percent.

The second event that are likely to boost Obama's chances with Hispanic voters is the recent Supreme Court split decision in Arizona v. United States (www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/06/26/us/scotus-immigrationlaw.html), which struck down the harshest part of the Arizona law, which made it a state crime for an immigrant to fail to carry federal registration papers and invalidated sections that authorized jail time for illegal immigrants who seek work in Arizona and gave power to local police to arrest immigrants suspected of offenses. The court did not strike the "show me your papers" provision that allows law enforcement officers to check up on whether someone is legally in the country or not. But the court signaled that it could be challenged again in the future, depending on how the provision is applied. Hispanics dislike the "show me your papers" provision and may bring out the Hispanic vote. The decision is considered a victory for the Obama administration and may make Arizona a battleground state.

How will Thursday's Supreme Court decision in National Association of Independent Business v. Sebelius, Secretary of Health and Human Services (www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/11pdf/11-393c3a2.pdf) upholding the Affordable Care Act (ObamaCare) in toto effect the Hispanic vote? Back in 2011, Hispanics generally had a favorable view of ObamaCare. (www.hispanicallyspeakingnews.com/notitas-de-noticias/details/poll-latinos-overall-have-favorable-opinion-of-obamacare/11131)

Obama's strategy in selling ObamaCare (http://pjmedia.com/tatler/2012/05/17/how-do-you-say-obamacare-in-spanish) is to highlight in Spanish-language ads the President’s record on healthcare, touting a record that includes making affordable healthcare available to up to 9 million previously uninsured Hispanics by 2014, enabling 736,000 young Hispanics to stay on their parents’ health insurance plans, strengthening Medicare so that 1.2 million Hispanic beneficiaries can receive free preventive screenings and affordable prescription drugs, and making sure that millions of Hispanics will no longer be denied insurance or charged more for insurance because of their gender or pre-existing condition. What will not be mentioned is the Catholic Church's opposition to ObamaCare's abortifacient mandate. Remember, about 70 percent of U.S. Catholics are Hispanic. However, support may weaken among Hispanics if their economic conditions deteriorate and health care costs continue to rise.

President Obama appears to be on course to garner a large percentage of the Hispanic vote. But there is four months till the election and anything can happen between now and then.

___________________________________

Salem-News.com writer Ralph E. Stone was born in Massachusetts. He is a graduate of both Middlebury College and Suffolk Law School. We are very fortunate to have this writer's talents in this troubling world; Ralph has an eye for detail that others miss. As is the case with many Salem-News.com writers, Ralph is an American Veteran who served in war. Ralph served his nation after college as a U.S. Army officer during the Vietnam war. After Vietnam, he went on to have a career with the Federal Trade Commission as an Attorney specializing in Consumer and Antitrust Law.

Over the years, Ralph has traveled extensively with his wife Judi, taking in data from all over the world, which today adds to his collective knowledge about extremely important subjects like the economy and taxation. You can send Ralph an email at this address stonere@earthlink.net

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Anonymous July 1, 2012 1:59 pm (Pacific time)

Ralph those are interesting stats, but the fact is that America leads the world in survival rates for many diseases including various cancers. Also when one looks at mortality rates, most of the world has different measurement systems than we, for example, count all infants that die, whether stillborn or shortly after birth. Many countries do not include these deaths in their mortality averages until they have entered school. Major skewing, it's apples/oranges. Currently in the United Kingdom they have curtailed medical assistance for their elderly in different health issues, and have in effect created well entrenched "death panels" of non-medical personnel making decisions based on cost, and not patient needs. This will also happen here, in fact at VA Hospitals it is happening now. Naturally you can keep costs down this way. As far as Obama saying not one penny of taxes (it's not a tax, right?!) will be levied against anyone making less than $250,000. You believe that? Obamacare is an ugly monster that needs to be repealed. Then we start passing legislation on single-type issues instead of dozens of unworkable and unfunded mandates (taxes). Simply allowing health insurance to be sold like car insurance across state lines will quickly dial up competition and lower costs. Too many liberals in the 50 states have really screwed things up. All the countries you mentioned are re-evaluating their healthcare, and all have multi-tier programs. How come all these waivers have been issued? Pelosi's district has the most waivers of any congressional district, and she is the biggest supporter for Obamacare, so what goes on with that? I have two health policies, and one is a $20,000 deductible for major medical, 100% coverage for anything, so no bankruptcy for my family. It's time people learn to take responsibility, and congress is perfectly willing to address pre-existing conditions for coverage via a risk pool, so we do not need this giant turd called Obamacare. You think any of these limosine liberals in congress and Hollywood, and the Wall Street bankers (who donate heavily to Obama) are going to be waiting in line with the masses for healthcare? It's all pretty phoney.

Ralph E. Stone July 1, 2012 8:39 am (Pacific time)

Despite having the most expensive health care system, the United States ranks last overall compared to six other industrialized countries—Australia, Canada, Germany, the Netherlands, New Zealand, and the United Kingdom—on measures of health system performance in five areas: quality, efficiency, access to care, equity and the ability to lead long, healthy, productive lives, according to a new Commonwealth Fund report.

June 30, 2012 11:21 am (Pacific time)

Doing something for votes is the major characteristic of Obama's political methodology going back to his first political office in the Illinois state legislature when he voted over 100 times "Present." More of his non-political behavior can be seen while a community activist in Chicago where he lived far above his reported finances. Have you noticed the record murder rate in Chicago lately? It is concentrated in the area where Obama worked, and going back to Saul Alinsky. In terms of healthcare, all european countries have been failing to provide timely treatments, it is getting worse. Canada is currently ramping up it's private market by allowing private insurance carriers. Here in America, the left promises the moon, but a major hitch...there is no money nor resources (doctors, staff, and dignostic equipment) to deal with the new patients. So after you wait for several hours to have that ten minutes with most likely an RN rather than an MD, expect months to go by for future treatment. That is happening in England now. So Obama increases the hispanic vote, and rallies his base with the same deception he used in his 2007-08 presidential campaign. We need leadership, and it has been Reid in the senate who has ignored bi-partisan bills from congress to address the economy and healthcare. Vote intelligently people, see through the lies. So how transparent has Obama been? What is Holder hiding? Think!

Anonymous June 30, 2012 9:21 am (Pacific time)

Are the Illegals included? Will Obama steal the Election? Will every illegal from every 3rd World Country vote for Obama? Well, we'll see. Get ready for the new song "Heil Obama", Germany was there some years ago and there we go again.

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