Newly-Released Study Predicts Economic Pain for Oregon if Federal Immigration Regulations are Implemented‏

Federal "No Match" Rule could disrupt the Oregon economy and eliminate jobs within the state's most critical industries.

(PORTLAND, Ore.) - The Coalition for a Working Oregon (CWO) released a study today that predicts significant reductions in economic output and job loss in the state if the federal "No Match" rule is implemented.

The study, conducted by William Jaeger, Ph. D., Professor in the Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics at Oregon State University, is entitled Potential Economic Impacts in Oregon of Implementing Proposed Department of Homeland Security "No Match" Immigration Rules. The report details possible economic consequences in Oregon of the proposed "No Match" rule, a federal regulation designed to identify and eliminate undocumented workers in the U.S. workforce.

"The potential ramifications for Oregon's economy are significant and could cause a loss of 173,500 jobs in the short-term, or 7.7% of Oregon's workforce along with a reduction in statewide annual production of up to $17.7 billion," said Dr. Jaeger.

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) "No Match" rule requires businesses to terminate any worker whose social security number cannot be verified by the Social Security Administration. The Rule is currently under appeal and could go into effect after the court process is completed. If implemented, the law would eliminate roughly 100,000 workers from the Oregon economy.

Dr. Jaeger went on to note that the negative effects of the rule would be felt in the years to come. "In the long-term, the study suggests that we could be looking at a loss of 147,000 jobs, an annual reduction in state output of up to 14.7 billion, a tax loss of $656 million and an overall economic loss of $7.2 billion."

An enforcement-only approach such as the "No Match" rule is particularly damaging to Oregon's labor-dependent industries because it provides no mechanism to replace workers removed from the system. The study reported that immigrant labor comprises 4.3 percent of Oregon's total workforce or roughly 100,000 workers. The percentages are much higher in the state's hospitality, agriculture and construction industries.

"This study illustrates what addressing part of the problem will get you," said Jeff Stone of the Oregon Association of Nurseries and a member of the CWO. "If you eliminate undocumented workers without giving employers some way to replace them, our businesses and economy will suffer. Enforcement is a critical part of reform, but enforcement alone is not a solution."

The study also concludes that eliminating undocumented workers cannot be expected to reduce the number of unemployed Oregonians. "The theory that the unemployment rate will drop with elimination of undocumented workers doesn't hold up," said Dr. Jaeger. "In fact, my analysis shows that due to the indirect effects on Oregon's economy, the number of jobs could actually decline in the short-term by 7.7 percent if this rule were implemented, which would include a loss of up to 76,000 jobs by legal domestic workers."

Jon Chandler with the 5,200-member Oregon Home Builders Association stated, "Employers want to hire legal workers. We as employers should do our part to help enforce our nation's immigration laws, and those who willfully violate the law ought to be punished. That said, we need a complete solution which ensures that we have access to an adequate workforce."

"Our immigration system is broken," said Bill Perry with the Oregon Restaurant Association, "And the only way to fix it is for the federal government to pass comprehensive reform. Partial solutions like "No Match," or a patchwork of state or local regulations, will only delay meaningful reform."

The Coalition for a Working Oregon, an organization consisting of 20 of Oregon's leading business associations, advocates for sensible, comprehensive reform of the current federal immigration system, supporting employee verification along with a mechanism for employers to access an adequate workforce, enhanced border security, and a system for effective enforcement of immigration laws.

CWO plans to use the data found in the study to build widespread support for comprehensive reform. Educational initiatives, including community forums, are being planned to discuss the findings and educate the public and elected officials about this complex issue.

The study relies on data from numerous state and national sources including the Oregon Employment Department, economic research and computer models, and existing studies from institutions like the Oregon Center for Public Policy and Pew Hispanic Center. For more information, or to download a complete copy of the report, visit oregoncanwork.org.

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Comments Leave a comment on this story.

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Earl July 13, 2008 10:58 am (Pacific time)

That's 173,500 job openings for the rest of the poor unemployed folks living off of the government right now. Amazing how that works!

Henry Ruark July 13, 2008 8:52 am (Pacific time)

sts et al Missed your kind invitation before, and wanted you to know it was appreciated, even though impossible for me to attend. At 90, with continuing meds problems, I write to share what "very checkered career" may have taught me, and thus reduce painful impacts for others-following. Circular-pattern on problems and issues intentional --to set up cogitation-causing Comments, worth far more than mine own "informed opinion" on most such situations. IF sharing helps, that's where satisfaction lies for me, as in past roles, too. I have, with some solid justification, been called an argumentative blabbermouth - a role always necessary in any democracy built on citizen responsibility, played via many during past centuries. Those role-players often acted to cause many intense discussions...as in the Federalist Papers from which our own Constitution sprang, following the Revolution brought on by those same leaders. I do NOT equate what we do here with that classic set of argumentative, world-creative writings, but we do have role to play/each as responsible citizens --with dialog as our most potent tool. Thanks for your continuing thoughtful participation.

Henry Ruark July 12, 2008 12:52 pm (Pacific time)

sts et al: Appreciate your frustrations AND your continuing good participation, too. This is to support precisely what Tim states. I know the process and can confirm his long dedication to very open, honest, democratic use of the channel --having tried to point out to him for some time that there ARE malign forces at work sure to attempt just what has happened here, from time to time. His continued open effort is admirable, honest, and far beyond what's available in most blogs or similar channels today. Mine own are "informed opinions" from study and full professional consideration. If and when I think I know any "solution", It will be there for others to check, test, confirm/deny or alter, as part of mutual learning mission absolutely demanded of this open, honest, democratic channel. Neve forget: Publisher is bound by legalities, costs, and other considerations far beyond what anyone else can contemplate, and we are very fortunate indeed to have S-N open, ready, willing and eager to provide that sharing resource for all who use it in good faith for democratic purpose --and NOT personal political preference and persuasion.

sts July 11, 2008 10:08 pm (Pacific time)

I am as stupid as anyone.. after I wrote my expression, and clicked send..I read the message "Once approved it will appear here". Once approved? by who? this webstie talks so much about freedom etc..but ...never mind., maybe I will just post when I feel like it..no profanity, no violence, and whatever.. what a weird feeling tho.."once approved"????????? I dont get it.

Tim King to STS: Unlike canned, corporate media Websites, we do not allow a machine to decide which comments should and should not be posted. From the beginning of our existence, each comment that is posted is approved by a living human being. Sometimes the people who are authorized to approve comments are out and unable to get to them for a few hours. That is why it takes longer sometimes. We apologize for the inconvenience.

Yes, we do talk about freedom, all the time; but Salem-News.com is a business and the comment section is one more thing that we make available for you and all of our other visitors. It has nothing to do with "freedom" except for <i>my</i> freedom to approve and disapprove every one as they come in. I try to approve them all, but sometimes comments are sent in that are profane, insulting, illegal, overly-racist, etc. and they get canned.

I think I told you before that one person who writes under a bunch of different names has a similar IP to yours. Just stick with one name and I will hopefully be able to keep from deleting any of yours by mistake.

sts July 11, 2008 10:04 pm (Pacific time)

henry...act on what? I like ya, but you seem to talk in circles with all the problems and no answers.. anyway, even tho I said I was not going to post here anymore, there is a meeting saturday morning at west salem high school for republican nominations. Show up to that Henry and I will be impressed. Writing from a computer is not too impressive. West Salem HIgh School, pretty much all day. go to youtube and type in 'ron paul and Iran.. or, spread the truth that our own government was behinf 9/11.. that is what is impressive. Yes, I threw up for days, and went into depression when I learned the truth, but sometimes we have to take some pain with some gain :-)

just me July 9, 2008 8:15 pm (Pacific time)

take the people of welfare and put them to work. problem solved. take the prisoners and put them to work. problem solved. take the bumps off the streets, give them a job, problem solved. no more jobs for illegals, they will go home. that's what we want.

Henry Ruark July 9, 2008 4:31 pm (Pacific time)

To all: Absolute "natural fact" is that immigration system is irretrievable broken, and demands comprehensive reform. Partial patchwork as here is only sure to delay and damage what must now be done in full and head-on, by Congress, when they get guts enough to face up to what's happening to the nation. Other states have rushed in too soon and too ready to play to political forces, and are now paying huge penalties via precisely the points here. Congress must act, despite those piles of white-enveloped stuff, and others with corporate logos showing, too. Target here needs to be the Congress, NOT the Legislature in Oregon OR any other State. This is distinctly, obviously, unavoidably, and irretrievably a fully-NATIONAL problem and demands a comprehensive answer from Congress for commonweal interests RAPIDLY.

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