Future of Taliban Role in New Era

As the death of Mullah Omar was publicized, the Taliban's supporters took steps to replace the Taliban with the ISIS, and that is why they propose to negotiate with the Taliban.

Mullah Mohammed Omar Photo: rediff.com

(SALEM, Ore.) - As the death of Taliban leader Mullah Omar was publicized, it appeared that the process of replacing the Taliban with ISIS has just started in Afghanistan.

For many years, the sponsors of Taliban have made use of both Al-Qaeda and Taliban to achieve their own goals in the region.

Now that a growing split has appeared in the Taliban, which has undermined its power, its supporters are viewing ISIS as a good alternative, and they believe ISIS can help them achieve their goals in the region, for at least a decade.

Experts in Afghanistan affairs, believe the split in the Taliban group was quite expected; however, it is not clear how many factions this group will be divided into, or whether the supporters will also support the new wings of the Taliban or not?

This is all uncertain and will be determined with the passage of time.

With a look at the parties and political groups which have experienced splits and divisions, one may conclude that a part of the Taliban which includes the most influential figures of this group, is backed by foreign supporters and the other factions have largely been isolated.

However, it is expected that Mullah Mansoor faction of Taliban which enjoys the support of Haqqani group in Pakistan, and also "Sirajuddin Haqqani" the son of "Jalaluddin Haqqani" the founder of this group, who serves as the deputy of the Taliban, will be supported by foreign supporters of the Taliban, and this way they will continue their political life.

In the meantime, commanders who oppose Mullah Mansoor, can choose one of the following three main options:

1. Reconciliation: consistent with the Mullah Mansoor faction. They can reconcile with the national unity government, and stop the war in Afghanistan;
2. Attracting foreign sponsors: they can make attempts to find a major sponsor, a powerful foreign supporter, to continue with the activities of the Taliban;
3. Join an alternative group: they can join another group, probably ISIS, and avoid the opposition to the group in Afghanistan.

It seems that the factions who opposed the leadership of Mullah Mansoor, will still oppose him, and they will practically stand against each other; gradually weakening the Taliban. The loss of the majority and decline of the Taliban group in the future, is not too far.

An important fact to note is that as the death of Mullah Omar was publicized, the Taliban's supporters took practical steps to replace the Taliban with the ISIS, and that is why they propose to negotiate with the Taliban.

It appears that, with regard to current circumstances, the policies of the United States, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia about Afghanistan have become somewhat coordinated.