American Recovery and Reinvestment Act Progress Encouraging

(WASHINGTON D.C.) - CEA Chair Christina Romer says data released today by the Commerce Department show that real GDP grew at an annual rate of 3.5 percent in the third quarter of the year.

"This is in stark contrast to the decline of 6.4 percent annual rate just two quarters ago. Indeed, the two-quarter swing in the rate of growth of 9.9 percentage points was the largest since 1980."

Romer says analysis by both the Council of Economic Advisers and a wide range of private and public-sector forecasters indicates that the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 contributed between 3 and 4 percentage points to real GDP growth in the third quarter.

"This suggests that in the absence of the Recovery Act, real GDP would have risen little, if at all, this past quarter."

After four consecutive quarters of decline, Romer believes positive GDP growth is an encouraging sign that the U.S. economy is moving in the right direction. But she isn't too overly optimistic.

"However, this welcome milestone is just another step, and we still have a long road to travel until the economy is fully recovered. The turnaround in crucial labor market indicators, such as employment and the unemployment rate, typically occurs after the turnaround in GDP."

Romer says it will take sustained, robust GDP growth to bring the unemployment rate down substantially. Such a decline in unemployment is, of course, what we are all working to achieve.

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Anonymous November 1, 2009 6:19 pm (Pacific time)

To believe the Founding Father's have anything in common with today's radical progressives displays a complete inability to understand the Bill of Rights and the U.S. Constitution as written by those champions of freedom and liberty. I suggest one reads the Communist Manifesto and some Saul Alinsky and see exactly what the current radicals are championing, and it ain't freedom and liberty people.

Henry Ruark November 1, 2009 4:34 pm (Pacific time)

Friend Vic: Veery true: World is in mell of a hess. Truth is, however, O did not put us there...and it took more than three decades, great wrong-choices by allofus, and 50 years of progressive failures from high-point of the P-capped "movement". Per prior points: Patience ! Patience ! Patience ! Rome was never built in a day or even a century; O doth not walk-on-water, sure as hell had deep-wading awaiting him, deserves our support vs our cavil and undermining moves, while seeking to remedy remains of what we mutually created for him to work on... As you know from "direxct", I'm more with you than may appear...just wish we can all work far more positively to make what the Founders foresaw continue to create and support true freedom and democracy. Re details of deep doo-doo on policy points, issues and problems, space precludes the point-by-point answers we really need to share...happy to indulge, in depth/detail and moreofsame direct, and you have my code... Yr always-insighful and well-worded comments help make S-N what it deserves to be, and what we both seek strongly for others-involved, too !!

Loren November 1, 2009 8:27 am (Pacific time)

It is an easy process to provide source links that will buttress anyone's point of view ("internal feelings"), but what I wrote at the end of my last post dealt with the future empirical, that is, see what the economy is doing the day after Thanksgiving. If sales are looking good, coupled with home/car sales and unemployment improving, then expect the 4th quarter GNP to (possibly) be similar to the 3rd quarter, and the latter was not a government driven short-term process via programs like "cash for clunkers." Back in the 1980's we had a similar economic downturn, but in a way it was worse because the interest rate was hovering around 21-22%. Times are certainly different, but the process of lowering taxes and providing easier credit to small and medium sized businesses has proven to be a good method in "stimulating" the economy, in contrast to what has happened in the last 9 months or so of the recent stimulus which is surrounded by growing controversy. Once again, after Thanksgiving, we should get a peek on how our economy is doing.

Vic October 31, 2009 9:11 pm (Pacific time)

Henry, the only trouble I have with "links", is that they prove nothing. I could provide links to back up anything...no matter how far removed from reality. I can find links "proving" that aliens are running the world, whites are smarter than non-whites, Asians are smarter than anyone, Elvis lives, we are winning the wars, we are losing the wars, etc....Who determines the validity of an outside source? I think there just is no way to ignore perception as a factor in what we call truth. Our realities, tho intertwined, are different..I think that is a good thing, but makes the search for "Universal truths" virtually impossible. For instance, I believe that 9-11 was an inside job....I can provide countless links regarding it that back me up. Many people, however, would think I am clinically insane, and could provide numerous links debunking my "wild-eyed conspiracy theory"....Hopefully we can all be somewhat open to new and even uncomfortable ideas...maybe even the idea that we, the human race, do not have the luxury of waiting decades for some saviour ...Jesus ,Obama,Superman...whoever, to fix things. The entire system is rotten and corrupt. The very rich rule us, and we peasants cower and hope that they will out of the goodness of their hearts, give us their table scraps, for which they get our eternal admiration and respect. I just cannot accept that. Voting in change sounds good...but did any of you get to vote on going to war? I didnt. How about the bank hand-out? We get to vote on the little things...and if we make the wrong choice...like Oregon's assisted suicide law...the Fed Govt. will void our votes. Anyways, Henry...you gotta admit the Titanic story was funny.....:)

Vic October 31, 2009 4:31 pm (Pacific time)

It has nearly been a year since Obama took the reins...promising change and transparency...so what have we got? Guantanemo Bay....still open Warrantless wiretapping....still going on War in Iraq...still going on Afghanistan...still going on with increased killing. Support for Israel..stronger than ever, with theson of an Israeli terrorist as Chief of Staff. Military spending....more than ever. Drone attacks....almost daily Attacks on Pakistan...increasing..... Even the most hopeful and Polly-annish of Obama supporters have to be scratching their heads..is this what you expected? More billions than ever before for killing, unwavering support for Israel, and more war in more places. I thought that Obama was going to get us out of these pointless wars...and I guarantee that if he said "A year from now everything will pretty much be the same or worse"...he would not have gotten nearly as many votes. Howevr, if anyone points these things out, they are "twising/distorting and perverting facts". Truth hurts, and to the truly mesmerized, is something to be fought...like the Michael Jackson fans who protested outside his child molestation trial... My mom always told me "Good is as good does"...talk and promises are cheap. Maybe my friend Henry can enligten us on all the changes that have taken place, because I dont see them. And, I sure would like to...despite assertations that I just want to distort and pervert the truth. Am I lying? Are we out of Guantanemo Bay? Are our drones flown by twenty-somethings by remote control in Nevada still blowing up mud villages and killing entire Pakistani families in heir beds? Are our soldiers coming home? What has changed??? All the changes I see are for the worse. I am glad our founding fathers did not have an obsessive aversion to violence, nor unlimited patience and selective memory, or we would still be a colony of England.

Henry Ruark October 31, 2009 3:58 pm (Pacific time)

Vic: Recognized your hand in both, and again as always appreciate your goodwill and strong positive intention. YOU can do better on these issues than share goodwill with me: Lay out your side in depth, detail, with links if at all possible. Donlt wish to sound combative or perhaps even combustible (!!), but seek fair-shot at depth/detailed review of falsity and myth and momentous misunderstandings, clearly cluttering and clouding the extreme importance of getting policies right and broadly accepted NOW while we can still do so. Thank you for continuing cogent, penetrating insights and look forward to moreofsame from you. As Hamnk Minott at UPI-Bsn used to yell at us: "SOMEbody gotta cover the (insert word) this breaking story !!" Perfidy and denial of reality now leading us on inexorably to "ends-justify-means" in all politics as well as to desperate departure from rationality, reason and economic realities.

Henry Ruark October 31, 2009 3:50 pm (Pacific time)

Loren: Yrs demonstratrs precisely my point via sating ytour feelings, but with no documentation. You say "cite", but I fail to see any checkable link to actual statements for evaluation via MY mind, NOT yours ! Re unemployment count, what d'you expect givrn 30 yr buildup to what world economic experts (links available) see as worst or close-to-worst flat-out/failure, tied tightly to myth of "supply side" and Reagan policies which destroyed regulation and capsizes capital markets by privatization and other similar economic inanities...with major measure by Hyek, 60-years back into economic development levels and avoiding huge elements of world trade, foreign policy and cultural conversions such as underway in India, China, and other "developing" nations. IF you wish documentation via links (space here short) ID self with working phone to Editor and will resurrect from remnants of writer's files and other sources more than 50 years deep. Appreciate your goodwill and willingness to dialog, let's get along farther towards now-demanded consensus on which all future progressive policies, actions and crucial decisions must depend NOW, with 21st Century already underway while we stand still entranced by foundations full of million-dollar chips to maintain status quo re myth of "free trade", "market miracle", et al, t al et al. moresoon and see upcoming Op Ed series again underway here.

Henry Ruark October 31, 2009 10:17 am (Pacific time)

Vic, "Anon":
Just to be very specific, let's start with Afghanistan action-demanded.
Should we withdraw completely, rapidly, now, and let chips fall where they may and blood flow where it will ?
Should we put into potent use the overwhelming firepower we possess, and end with clear victory despite consequences to all others ?
Take your choice, anything in between, state what it is and then why and how.
Until and unless we dialog at that level, cliched-stuff re deck chairs on sinking ship simply subtle form of denial for definite, checkable, documentable statement based on rationality, reasonableness and potent honest analysis.,
SO, keeds, fire away on the Afghanistan policy; then we can proceed rationally and reasonably to any and all others.
If you prefer any other one of the many problems, puzzles and potent-consequentials we now face --on which you know I agree 80 percent with some of your previous stuff-- fire up on any of those, too.
We are fortunate to have S-N as open channel. Let;s use it honorably, well, in depth and detail...and always with documentation beyond our own words.
We may be informed but many sources are far more-so, with depth, detail, files, records,actions and other main source-providers than we can possibly have in our situation here.
SO let's ues them, too, cited for all to see and to evaluate with own mind in the context of own life experience as provided by open, honest, democratic dialog right here.

Loren October 31, 2009 10:20 am (Pacific time)

I will cite the unemployment rate: 9.8% and growing. I will cite that the Obama Administration stated that just approximately 15% of the stimulus has been spent. So what was the rush to pass this which no one had the time to read? The jobs they say they created (or saved, how nebulous is that!) are being questioned by economic experts, not just ideologues. For those unemployed, they are not wanting to see where we are in six months, think internal feelings based on experience for these poor souls. We have historical templates on what has created jobs and it is not some stimulus spending that increases government jobs, which need private sector jobs (revenue) to pay for those jobs, which some say should be at a 9 to 1 ratio. The current approach to repair our economic sector is strikingly similar to the approach taken to get H1N1 vaccine to our people. Talking the talk wears thin. The GNP growth during the last quarter will be something if it repeats for the next quater. By the day after Thanksgiving you will know if it was a blurp based on temp. government programs like the Cash for Clunkers or maybe something else, for example an increase in viable economic activity. I sincerely hope I am wrong and that we really are recovering.

Vic October 31, 2009 10:01 am (Pacific time)

Hope you are right, Henry...I really do.....also wanted to add that I am both posters, just forgot to put name on last post. More than try to shoot anything down, I could not resist what seemed like an open invitation for satire....

Henry Ruark October 31, 2009 9:35 am (Pacific time)

Please note lack of any documentation on this one, given sufficient time. "See also" mine further under preceding story re Merkley statement. Challenge is as challenge does...put up or shut up !! Those commenting thus have proven publicly power of their potent writing, and sometime even honest analysis. Let's hear from therm NOW on specifics re Obama policies, with direct personal statement of what is wrong and how to fix it, issue by issue, policy by policy, step by step. Tht's what honest, open, democratic dialog can and does demonstrate, display, encourage and make possible the sharing-learning heart of conversation constituting real democracy, leading to solid, sensible, rational, reasonable consensus decision supportable by majority. SO let's "get it on" as our next mutual steps towards that overall goal, on which we can surely agree...right ?? Please note lower-case r-letter on that last word...

Henry Ruark October 30, 2009 4:31 pm (Pacific time)

Vic and "Anon":
When prosperity rears its beautiful head again, you two will probably still be distorting/perverting national channels far more informed and with more open motivations.
If Obama suddenly sprouted wings and ability to fly, while pointing finger for rapid economic miracles and clear solutions for every major pending program, whose whirly-words, twisted to fit, would you cite in denial ?
Honest politics demands open honest acceptance of provable, testable, visible fact, when offered.
Patience itself ends with devastating damage when so denied.
Please report again in about another six months or so,given continuing progress...the ship will still be afloat, loading for renewed trade, and with millions on the road to job recovery and beginnings of recession-end.
I note neither of you bother to cite any source except your own internal feelings.

Anonymous October 29, 2009 11:53 am (Pacific time)

"New Deck Chair Arrangement Encouraging, Says Titanic Captain and Crew" April 15, 1912 Captain Edward Smith just moments ago unveiled a new deck chair arrangement, that should calm the nerves of jittery passengers. "This arrangement is in line with our belief that the ship is on it's way to stability" stated Chief Officer Henry Wilde. "Actually, since more of the ship is underwater than before, and less surface is exposed to the wind and waves, one could argue that the ship has never been in more stable condition!" The new arrangement is a circular pattern with chairs radiating out from the pool area. It offers a panoramic view with easy access to services. Captain Smith dismissed concerns that the ship seemed to be breaking in half, calling it a "downsizing" and "re-adjustment of previously forecast ship length requirements". First Officer William Murdoch echoed the assessment, adding that the shorter Titanic would be faster and more efficient. But he isn't too overly optimistic. "However, this welcome milestone is just another step, and we still have a long road to travel until the ship is fully recovered. If no more water leaks in and the water that is already in goes out, I can say confidently that we are on the road to recovery!" he added, before heading up the steeply angled decks to the new chair arrangement, which seemed to be sliding somewhat. Source: White Star Cruise Lines

Vic October 29, 2009 10:37 am (Pacific time)

"New Deck Chair Arrangement Encouraging, Says Titanic Captain and Crew"

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