Wildfire Season for 2009 Looms: Officials Issue Expectations & Preparations

Rod Nichols with the Oregon's Forestry Department says current conditions suggest that the state will experience an average to slightly worse-than-average wildfire season in 2009.

Oregon wildfire file photo Courtesy: BLM

(SALEM, Ore.) - When asked to characterize the upcoming wildfire season, Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF) fire managers are likely to fall back on Nobel physicist Niels Bohr's maxim, "Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future." That's not to say they don't try. There are dozens of scientific indicators to pore over prior to the summer – weather trends (El Nino/La Nina), snowpack levels, forest fuel moisture content, et al. But the most critical factor in the equation plays out real-time: the weather during fire season. If dry lightning occurs in a broad swath across the state, expect to see large wildfires. These thunderstorms bearing little or no moisture can produce hundreds of fire starts in a few hours and temporarily overwhelm Oregon's fire protection system. These natural firestorms further confound wildfire managers in being difficult to forecast. Developing thunderstorm systems show up clearly on meteorological instruments, but whether they'll be dry or wet when they reach Oregon is often a guessing game. With that considerable disclaimer, current conditions suggest that the state will experience an average to slightly worse-than-average wildfire season in 2009. Statewide, the weather forecast is for below-average rainfall in June, with a drier-than-average July and August likely to follow. Snow melt is currently about average, which tends to limit fire activity at higher altitudes early in the summer. Within the state, the southeastern region is a special concern, as it is currently in drought. Besides the below-average rainfall, this area of Oregon that lies roughly south of a line from Klamath Falls to Ontario can also expect above-average temperatures this summer. Finally, conventional forecasting logic says that the summer after a La Nina dissipates, the weather tends to be drier and warmer than average. FIREFIGHTING FORCES