Oregon’s Employment Situation: September 2006

Oregon’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 5.4 percent in September and 5.5 percent in August. The rate has been essentially the same this year, ranging from a low of 5.3 percent in January to a high of 5.6 percent in February, May, and July.

Salem-News.com

(SALEM) - Oregon’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in September was essentially unchanged at 5.4 percent from 5.5 percent in August. The state’s unemployment rate has been stable this year, staying between 5.3 percent and 5.6 percent for the first nine months.

The U.S. unemployment rate was 4.6 percent in September, about the same as during the past nine months when it ranged between 4.6 percent and 4.8 percent.

Oregon’s seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment rose by 3,900 jobs in September. The August figure was revised higher to show a gain of 4,300.

Industry Payroll Employment (Establishment Survey Data)

In September, seasonally adjusted total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 3,900, which was roughly in line with the rapid growth over the prior 12 months. The August employment figure was revised upward modestly to show a gain of 4,300 for the month. With the fairly strong job gains of the past two months, the spring and summer trend indicates only a slight slowing from the rapid job growth during the prior two years.

In September, two major industries – government (+2,500) and professional and business services (+2,400) – had seasonally adjusted job gains of more than 2,000. Three major industries – manufacturing, financial activities, and trade, transportation, and utilities – each posted gains of 700. Only one major industry saw a substantial seasonally adjusted job loss; educational and health services dropped by 3,100.

· Government showed the largest job gains of any major industry. Local government education added 16,800 jobs in September as the school year started at most elementary schools through community colleges. Summer employment levels were elevated this year compared to last.

Employment climbed by 6,300 jobs in local government education this September compared with September 2005. Meanwhile, state government employment was about the same as in the prior year, with employment up by only 200 jobs in the past 12 months. Federal government cut 500 jobs in that time.

· Professional and business services added 1,200 jobs at a time of year when a loss of 1,200 would be typical. This strong September showing more than made up for a weak showing in August.

Professional and business services has grown faster than the statewide economy, with employment up 6,900 jobs since September 2005. This rapid growth was led by architectural and engineering services, which added 1,800 jobs in that time, and employment services, which added 1,600.

· Manufacturing was flat in September at a time of year when it would normally lose 800 jobs due to seasonal factors such as food processing winding down after the summer harvests. Several durable goods industries posted job cuts for the month, including computer and electronic product manufacturing (-400 jobs).

Transportation equipment manufacturing cut 300 jobs, bringing its employment to 19,200. Despite the drop in September, transportation equipment has expanded rapidly the past three years after a protracted slump from 2001 through 2003. Prior to that, peak employment was reached in March 2000, when the industry employed 19,700. This peak employment level was matched in June and July 2006. Food manufacturing countered its normal trend by adding 300 jobs in September and was up 400 jobs from its year-ago figure.

· Financial activities continued its strong employment trend of the past three years by adding 700 more jobs than normal for September. This major industry was one of the fastest growing in the past 12 months and added 4,500 jobs during that time. Finance and insurance showed the majority of this growth as it now employs 66,900.

· Trade, transportation, and utilities grew rapidly during this economic expansion. The industry added 1,100 jobs in September, when only 400 would be expected due to seasonal factors. Retail trade had a decent month despite record-high gasoline prices siphoning off consumer discretionary income. Retail added 2,000 jobs and is up 8,500 in the past 12 months. A major growth driver here is the logistical build-out of large national chain stores in many retail sectors including home improvement and general merchandise.

· Educational and health services dipped in September on a seasonally adjusted basis. Private-sector educational services, which employs 28,400, cut 300 jobs in the past 12 months. Meanwhile, the much larger health care and social assistance portion, which employed 178,600, posted a gain of 5,800 jobs since last September. Overall, while employment in educational and health services has been relatively flat so far this year, it did have a substantial hiring surge late last year that places its employment close to its long-term trend of sustained rapid job growth.

Unemployment (Household Survey Data)

Oregon’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 5.4 percent in September and 5.5 percent in August. The rate has been essentially the same this year, ranging from a low of 5.3 percent in January to a high of 5.6 percent in February, May, and July. The September rate was below the year-ago figure of 6.0 percent. In September, 90,938 Oregonians were unemployed, compared with 100,859 in September 2005.

The Oregon Employment Department will release statewide unemployment rate and employment survey data for October 2006 at 11:00 AM on Monday, November 13th, 2006.