Last Month's Unemployment Rate in Oregon Still Holding

(SALEM, Ore.) - Oregon’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was unchanged at 11.3 percent in October from the revised September figure of 11.3 percent.

This was its lowest since the rate was 10.7 percent in February, and was down from the high of 12.2 percent in May. Oregon’s unemployment rate was 7.2 percent in October 2008.

The U.S. seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 9.8 percent in September and 10.2 percent in October, its highest level in 26 years.

In October, Oregon’s seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment dropped by 1,900 jobs, following a loss of 6,000 (as revised) in September.

In October, three major industries posted seasonally adjusted job losses of more than 1,000: manufacturing (-2,400 jobs), construction (-1,900), and leisure and hospitality (-1,500). Two of the other major industries posted gains: professional and business services (+1,500) and financial activities (+1,400).

Manufacturing continued to cut jobs, slashing 3,100 in October during a month where the job loss due to seasonal factors would normally be 700. Durable goods shed 2,200 in October, as wood product manufacturing cut 900 jobs, machinery manufacturing cut 300, and computer and electronic product manufacturing cut 700. The only published durable goods industry to add jobs was transportation equipment manufacturing, which added 200.

Nondurable goods manufacturing cut 900 jobs in October and is down 4,600 since October 2008. Both food manufacturing (-500 jobs) and paper manufacturing (-100) shed workers.

Construction resumed its downward employment trajectory with a loss of 3,000 jobs in October during a month when a loss of only 1,100 is the norm. The trend for the industry since February has been one of moderate job losses, as seasonally adjusted construction employment was 82,400 in February and has dropped to 76,500 by October.

Job losses in October were concentrated in nonresidential building construction (-600 jobs) and specialty trade contractors (-2,400).

Leisure and hospitality continued its recent job losses by cutting 6,000 jobs in October during a month that normally sees a loss of 4,500 due to seasonal factors. The trend over the last year has been one of steady and substantial job losses following a flat trend during the prior year. Over the past 12 months, the industry is down over 12,000 jobs, equaling a loss of 7 percent.

In October, job losses in this major industry were across the board. Arts, entertainment, and recreation shed 1,700 jobs, accommodation cut 1,100, while food services and drinking places cut 3,200.

Professional and business services has shown a pronounced upturn in October following several months of a steady pattern. Seasonally adjusted employment was close to 180,000 between April and September, but rose to 181,800 in October.

Normally October sees drops in employment in this sector, but most of the component industries were relatively stable for the month this year.

Financial activities added 300 jobs in October, when a loss of 1,100 is the normal seasonal pattern. This job gain was counter to the industry’s recent trend, as financial activities was on a downward trajectory throughout most of the past three years. Real estate and rental and leasing added 400 jobs in October.

In October, Oregon’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 11.3 percent, the same as the revised September figure. With Oregon’s unemployment rate down from its recent high of 12.2 percent in May and the U.S. unemployment rate continuing to rise during most months this year, the gap between the Oregon rate and the U.S. rate has narrowed. In October, Oregon’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was only 1.1 percentage points above the U.S. unemployment rate. This is the closest Oregon’s rate has been to the U.S. since December 2008 when the gap was also 1.1 percentage point.

Oregon’s seasonally adjusted civilian labor force continued to decline in October. This measure of Oregonians who are either employed or unemployed totaled 1,956,867 in October and was down from its peak of 2,003,610 in April. Looking at seasonally adjusted numbers, since the spring, both the number of Oregonians employed and unemployed has been declining, thus reducing the labor force. The exact extent of contributing factors is unclear but it is evident that Oregon’s labor force participation rate has declined throughout much of this year.

In October, 210,325 Oregonians were unemployed. In October 2008, 135,071 Oregonians were unemployed.

The Oregon Employment Department plans to release the October county and metropolitan area unemployment rates on Monday, November 23rd and the statewide unemployment rate and employment survey data for November on Monday, December 14th.