Another Jump in Gas Prices Expected for Oregon

West Coast states seeing pump prices rise faster than other parts of the country.

(PORTLAND, Ore.) - Retail gas prices are likely to jump this month as we see spikes in demand, especially approaching Memorial Day. This week, several West Coast states are already seeing pump prices rise faster than other parts of the country.

For the week, the national average for regular climbs three cents to $2.91 a gallon. The Oregon average jumps six cents to $3.31.

Gas prices and supply and demand for gas are similar to May 2019. The national average ended May 2019 at $2.83 a gallon and the Oregon average ended May 2019 at $3.42.

Gasoline stocks are seeing a small increase of 100,000 bbl to reach the 135 million bbl mark. This is the highest supply rate since the end of February and an 8.3 million bbl surplus compared to the same time two years ago.

While supply increased, demand saw a decrease of 3% to 8.87 million b/d, for the week ending April 23 according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Last April, demand fell to 5.5 million b/d when states enacted lockdowns and travel restrictions and Americans were quarantining due to COVID-19.

“Compared to May 2019, U.S. gasoline demand is down only 4% and gas prices are on average within about a dime of what we were paying two years ago,” says Marie Dodds, public affairs director for AAA Oregon/Idaho.

Visit AAA.com/covidmap for an interactive map with the latest travel restrictions and policies for North America. Find AAA’s latest COVID-19 information for travelers here.

Summer Fuel Supply

Last week, media reports surfaced that a shortage of fuel tank truck drivers may impact gasoline availability this summer. As gasoline demand increases, gas stations are working to adjust delivery schedules to keep pace.

However, deliveries may be delayed in a small number of markets this summer causing select stations to see low to no fuel at some pumps for short periods, one or two days.

“With road trips expected to be popular this summer, some summer travel destinations including coastal areas and mountains may see some pumps affected. It is important to understand this is not a market-wide impact, as fuel can be found at other stations within a market,” says Dodds.

“There’s no gas supply shortage in the U.S.; there’s plenty of gasoline supply across the country. Rather, it’s a matter of delivery delays."

Central and Southern Oregon were two areas impacted by temporary and limited gasoline outages last month.

In all the markets where this occurred, it was contained within a brand/chain at a select number of pumps. As a rule of thumb in general, AAA recommends that drivers consider filling up when their fuel level hits a quarter of a tank.

Quick Stats

Oregon is one of 48 states and Washington D.C. where prices are higher now than a week ago.

Oregon is one of nine states where prices have climbed a nickel or more in the last week. Indiana (+8 cents) has the largest weekly increase in the nation. Oregon (+6 cents) has the sixth-largest weekly increase in the country. Ohio (-4 cents) and Arizona (-2/10ths of a cent) are the only two states with week-over-week declines.

California ($4.05) and Hawaii ($3.80) continue to have the most expensive gas prices in the country. California is the only state with an average above $4 a gallon, and 11 states and the District of Columbia are above $3, same as a week ago.

The cheapest gas in the nation can be found in Mississippi ($2.57) and Texas ($2.59). For the 17th week in a row, no state has an average below $2 a gallon.

Oregon is one of 42 states and the District of Columbia with higher prices now than a month ago. The national average is four cents more and the Oregon average is 12 cents more than a month ago.

This is the fourth-largest month-over-month increase in the nation. Nevada (+17 cents) has the largest monthly increase in the country. Arizona (-4 cents) has the biggest monthly decline.

All 50 states and the District of Columbia have higher prices now than a year ago and 39 states have a current average that’s a dollar or more higher than a year ago. The national average is $1.13 more and the Oregon average is 93 cents more than a year ago. This is the seventh-smallest yearly increase in the nation. Michigan (+$1.36) has the biggest yearly increase. Hawaii (+64 cents) has the smallest year-over-year increase. Compared to a year ago, gas prices are very expensive as last spring was prime quarantine time across the country.

West Coast

The West Coast region continues to have the most expensive pump prices in the nation with every state in the region in the top 10.

California is the most expensive state for the 17th week in a row and is the only state in the nation with an average above $4 per gallon. Hawaii, Nevada, Washington, Oregon, and Alaska round out the top six. Arizona is 10th. Oregon is fifth for the ninth week in a row.

All seven states in the West Coast region are among the 11 states in the country, along with D.C., that have averages above $3 a gallon.

States in the West Coast region are seeing larger weekly changes in pump prices than most other parts of the country. Alaska (+7 cents) and Washington (+7 cents) have the largest weekly increases in the region.

Arizona (-2/10ths of a cent) has the largest decrease in the region, and is one of only states in the country with a weekly decline.

One reason pump prices are mostly climbing in the West Coast region is a stable refinery utilization rate amid increasing demand. Refinery utilization in this region has held steady at about 82 percent for the last month, putting upward pressure on prices.

According to EIA’s latest weekly report, total gas stocks in the region show a decline to 30.95 million bbl from 31.65 million bbl last week. This will continue to send prices higher in the region this week.

Oil market dynamics

Although prices ended last week with a decrease on Friday, supported by a strong dollar, the price of crude increased by nearly $1.50 per barrel on the week.

Increased market optimism that crude demand will recover, despite surging coronavirus infection rates in Asia, helped to lift prices. Prices could continue to climb this week if the market remains optimistic.

Additionally, prices increased last week after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) and its allies, including Russia, recommended leaving in place a recent agreement to gradually increase crude production by at least 2.1 million b/d in May and June.

At the next OPEC+ meeting on June 1, the cartel will determine crude output levels for July and August.

At the close of Friday’s formal trading session, WTI decreased by $1.43 to settle at $63.58. At the close of Monday’s formal trading session, WTI added 91 cents to settle at $64.49.

Today crude is trading around $65, compared to $62 a week ago. Crude prices are about $45 more than a year ago.

Diesel

For the week, the national average rises a penny to $3.09 a gallon. Oregon’s average adds three cents to $3.26. A year ago the national average for diesel was $2.43 and the Oregon average was $2.58.